Thursday, July 29, 2010

Net Worth Time Series: Single Source of Income Versus Multi Source of Income

A person's net worth can be plotted in time series. Type of the time series plot can be characterized as below:

A) Robot Asimo - Staircase Type

Asimo works hard to earn steady monthly salary. Due to robot never spend any single penny (or, maybe do not know how to spend), the net worth pattern shall be look like a staircase type.

Characteristic: No human being is classified into this category. But, it shows that it is the maximum amount that one can earn from this single source of income for the rest of the life time.
B) Mr. Savi - Uptrend Saw-Type

Mr. Savi awares about the saving is important. Thus, he works hard to increase his net worth through his single source of income, most likely it is through the employment.

Characteristic: Consumption Outflow lesser than Monthly Salary Inflow
C) Ms. Balanec - Flat Saw-Type

Ms. Balanec seems to know well about the balance of spending and earning perfectly. Perhaps, she has no trust on financial planning. Spend all as per earned. She really knows how to enjoy life...young.

Characteristic: Consumption Outflow same as Monthly Salary Inflow
D) Mr. Brooke - Downtrend Saw-Type

Mr. Brooke believes in today money more worth than tomorrow, so he spends it all using his future money from credit card. How to finance his high consumption outflow? Perhaps, his father is rich...very rich.

Characteristic: Consumption Outflow higher than Monthly Salary Inflow
E) Ms. Exponen - Escalating Staircase Type

Ms. Exponen works and has developed passive incomes or another stream of active incomes.

Characteristic: Consumption Outflow is offset by multi source of  income that generates exponential effect growth from the existing net worth. Due to the effect of strong inflow, she has no worry on her basic/fixed month expenses.
What is your time series pattern?



Every success starts with a hard way, always.
This is the actual time series pattern which I just started my plan. The execution is hard but it is not an impossible task.


After years, the trend changes to exponential or higher linear growth trend. It is the results of
1) increasing the capability of inflow,
2) use the increased amount of inflow to buy appreciating asset,
3) reduce liability, and
4) controlled outflow.

It is as simple as ABC, just the matter of the cashflow management. But, how many people can do that?

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

REIT and Shop Lot Investment in Malaysia

Mr. E intends to invest in property after he receives an amount of sum assured from his deceased father's life insurance. With his own parent taught since his childhood, properties investment is the best investment vehicle that he can park his money in. Net receivable of the sum assured is RM100,000. Mr. E believes in conventional way to invest it in such way to "own" a shop physically at somewhere in the town. However, his wife receives information about REIT from his securities broker.  
 
REIT in Malaysia is not popular, even their DY (dividend yield) recorded 7% - 8% p.a. recently. This is due to limited appreciation of the stock value itself, around 4% p.a. It is about 13 REITs listed in Bursa Malaysia.

Case Study#1: Invest RM100,000 directly to "own" a 2-storey-shop lot at KL

Assumption:
Net rental income is the gross rental income of RM7,000 offset with taxes and maintenance, said RM6,000.




Case Study#2: Invest RM100,000 in REIT

Assumption:
1) dividend per unit paid in semiannual
2) dividend per unit growth at 5% p.a.
3) Capital appreciation at 5% p.a.

Finding:
Case Study#1:
IRR = 22.62% p.a.
NPV@6.5%p.a. = RM1,114,452.25 (Accepted)
Pro/con: 1) consistence monthly rental income that can against inflation, 2) Psychologically "own" the shop, feel more secure, 3) low liquidity, 4) Higher cost (lawyer fees etc), 5) higher return, 6) high maintenance, 7) committed to loan servicing  

Case Study#2:
IRR = 10.28% p.a.
NPV@3.25%p.a. = RM255,567.73 (Accepted)
Pro/con: 1) consistence semi annual dividend income that can against inflation, 2) liquidity very high, switch to other investment vehicle easier, 3) low brokerage fees, 4) lower return, 5) less maintenance, 6) No commitment

Present Value Evaluation (DDM) by using my expected return at 15% p.a.
Case Study#1:
P=D,o(1+g)/(r-g) = 12*6000(1+0.04)/(0.15-0.04) = RM680,727.30 (Assume freehold property)
Case Study#2:
P=D,o(1+g)/(r-g) = 2*2500(1+0.05)/(0.15-0.05) = RM52,500